13 years of off-leash enforcement in Seattle: rising cost, falling output.

Across 2014–2025, fee revenue ($351,099 cumulative) covered roughly 11% of the program's estimated $3.34M FAS+FMW cost. In the MOA-documented era (2016 on), the program cost per published citation was lowest in the peak-output years — $229 in 2018 — and highest in the trough — $1,730 in 2022. Even the 2024 partial recovery to 447 citations leaves cost-per-citation at $654, nearly triple the 2018 figure. Because the announced 2026 expansion roughly doubles staffing cost, holding the existing cost-per-citation ratio would require citation output to roughly double from current levels — which it has not approached in any year since 2019.

Three phases are visible. The 2016–2019 build-up: citations climbed from 183 (2014) to a 1,276 peak (2018). The COVID-era crater: 2020 fell to 393 (−67% from 2019), and output has not recovered — the strongest year since the COVID period (2024) reached 447, about a third of peak. The 2026 expansion: doubling staffing produces a projected 2027–2028 range of roughly 894 citations/year (if per-officer output stays at the 2024 rate) to 2,552/year (if it returns to the 2018 peak rate). Per-officer output has not exceeded ~225 in any year since 2019, so the lower half of that range is the more likely outcome absent a change in approach.

First offenses have ranged from about 84% to 96% of DLP citations in every year of the record, rising over time rather than falling. One reading is that enforcement is deterring repeat offenses. A second reading is that lower total citation volume mechanically reduces the chance of an officer encountering the same person twice, which would push the first-offense share up regardless of behavior. The two cannot be separated here: neither PRR includes owner identifiers that would let us track individuals across citations. What the data does show is that the offense mix never shifted toward repeat offenders — the pattern is consistent with a program issuing fresh first-time contacts year after year, not one drawing down a shrinking pool of repeat violators. SPR's own 2016 owner survey found 39% of dog owners admit weekly-to-monthly illegal off-leash use; no follow-up survey has been published (see what SPR has not measured).

Citations cluster where designated OLAs aren't. Discovery, Volunteer, Cal Anderson, Lincoln, Martha Washington, Wallingford Playfield, Seward, and Maple Leaf Reservoir all rank in the top 20 and none has a dedicated OLA on site. Magnuson and Westcrest appear as hotspots because the non-OLA portions of those large host parks are used off-leash. The top 10 parks accounted for 46% of citations before COVID and 40% after — concentration eased somewhat but the same handful of parks still dominate. The data records where citations were issued, not why officers were there, so it cannot establish whether a given park is a hotspot because of higher violation rates or because patrols were directed to it. One post-COVID shift is worth noting without over-reading: West Queen Anne Playfield is the only top-10 pre-COVID park whose citation volume did not fall with the citywide decline — consistent with enforcement attention following community complaints in that area, though the data alone cannot confirm the cause.

Citation density concentrates outside OLA walksheds. North of the Ship Canal — Wallingford, Ravenna, Maple Leaf, Green Lake, Laurelhurst — shows heavy density with little walkable OLA coverage. The Queen Anne / Magnolia core has Kinnear (0.124 acre) and Magnolia Manor (0.48 acre), both below the AKC one-acre minimum, and a citation band through Discovery, West Queen Anne Playfield, and Smith Cove. Lincoln Park (West Seattle) carries 173 cumulative citations; the nearest OLA, Westcrest, is 3.4 miles away.